🖨️ THE REAL STATE OF 3D PRINTING

Dear Partners & Friends,

We’re hitting pause for the summer to focus on in-depth research and curate a spectacular lineup of content for our return in September. We hope you enjoy this month’s edition and truly appreciate your unwavering support. Have an amazing summer, and get ready for a dynamic and revitalized Newsflash in the fall!

– The Reference Capital Team

The Real State of 3D Printing

AM is no longer hype. It’s scaling in aerospace, medtech, and defense, but still bottlenecked by materials, post-processing, and workflow complexity. This report maps where Additive Manufacturing (AM), or 3D printing, is delivering real value, and what it will take to move from niche to necessary.

PART I: FROM PROTOTYPE TO PRODUCTION

AM builds objects layer by layer from a digital model. Unlike subtractive (cutting, milling) or formative (molding, casting) methods, AM adds material precisely where needed. This enables complex geometries, minimal waste, and mass customization at scale.

Once a tool for prototyping, AM now powers real-world production across metals, polymers, ceramics, and composites. Industries like aerospace, healthcare, and industrial tooling benefit from its speed, precision, and weight savings. Advances in software, materials, print speed, and public investment are driving AM from the lab into the supply chain.

But progress remains uneven. Success has come from tightly integrated systems targeting specific parts, not general-purpose printing. Below, we explore where AM is gaining real traction, and where it’s still falling short.

Real Use Cases, Real Traction

🩺 Healthcare: From custom implants to surgical guides, 3D printing is becoming a frontline tool in modern medicine. Nearly every hearing aid and over 6 million dental aligners per year are now printed. Hospitals fabricate patient-specific models, prosthetics, and implants in-house. Dental labs are producing over 15 million crowns and bridges annually using advanced polymer systems. Companies like Materialise are powering this shift at scale, producing over 500,000 personalized medical parts per year, including anatomical models, surgical guides, and implants across orthopedics, cranio-maxillofacial, and cardiovascular care. Meanwhile, Open Bionics is transforming prosthetics with affordable, 3D-printed bionic limbs like the Hero Arm, the world’s first clinically approved, mass-produced myoelectric prosthetic, now in use by over 450 patients across the UK, US, and Europe. At the industrial scale, Align Technology uses AM to produce more than 1 million unique clear aligners per week, a milestone that underscores how 3D printing has become a backbone of personalized medical manufacturing.

🚀Aerospace and defense: In sectors where failure is not an option, AM is producing flight-ready fuel nozzles, turbine blades, and heat exchangers with complex geometries and extreme strength-to-weight ratios. What used to take months in a machine shop is now certified for orbit, flight, and field deployment. Relativity Space, for instance, uses large-format AM to produce up to 95% of a launch vehicle in just 60 days, compressing what once took months or years into weeks while meeting the rigorous demands of spaceflight. Meanwhile, Ursa Major applies industrial-grade metal AM to rapidly produce propulsion systems. By leveraging AM for combustion chambers and injectors, Ursa accelerates development cycles, reduces part counts, and meets aerospace performance tolerances. And beyond Earth, Space Forge is extending additive manufacturing into orbit. In June 2025, the UK-based startup launched ForgeStar-1, Britain’s first in-space manufacturing satellite, aboard a SpaceX rideshare. Described by CEO Joshua Western as a “sourdough starter” for orbital industry, the oven-sized satellite aims to validate robotic, automated AM processes in orbit, using space’s vacuum, zero gravity, and extreme cold to produce ultra-pure crystal seeds for next-generation semiconductors, alloys, and pharmaceuticals.

🏗️Construction: Entire neighborhoods are being printed. The 100-home Wolf Ranch project in Texas stands as the world’s largest 3D-printed housing development. Similar projects across Mexico, the Netherlands, and Dubai are proving AM’s potential to slash labor costs, shrink timelines, and redefine architectural freedom. Companies like ICON, which developed its proprietary Lavacrete material and Vulcan printer, and COBOD, whose gantry-based systems are used globally, are leading this transformation from proof-of-concept to full-scale infrastructure

🍫👗Food, fashion, and consumer goods: From edible art to haute couture, AM is pushing boundaries. Chefs craft intricate chocolate sculptures with food-safe printers. Redefine Meat and Cocuus create plant-based meats with convincing marbling and bite; Redefine’s 3D-printed cuts are now served in over 1,000 restaurants across Europe. Designers like Iris van Herpen are showcasing fully printed garments on global runways. Across garages and repair shops, 3D printers are reviving rare car parts, musical instruments, and bespoke gear no supply chain can reach.

What Hasn’t Worked (Yet)

Some parts of the ecosystem have faltered:

• Material limitations: AM remains constrained by a narrow set of printable, performance-grade alloys and polymers. Only 8–10% of industrial metal alloys are compatible with commercial AM systems, and fatigue life can be 30–50% lower than forged parts due to porosity and microstructural inconsistencies, a critical issue in aerospace and defense applications.
• Post-processing burden: Finishing, machining, and heat treatment often account for 30–70% of total part cost, especially in metal AM. While the print itself might take just 3–7 days, total lead times frequently stretch to 2–3 weeks due to extensive quality assurance and surface finishing needs.
• Quality and repeatability gaps: In sectors where consistency is non-negotiable, AM still struggles. Over 65% of industrial users cite part-to-part variability as a core barrier, and each combination of material, machine, and geometry typically requires requalification, a time- and cost-intensive process, particularly in regulated industries like aerospace and medical.
• Limited scalability: For high-throughput manufacturing, AM remains uncompetitive. Binder jetting and laser sintering of medium-to-large parts can take 10–100 hours per build, and per-unit costs are still 5–10x higher than traditional methods like injection molding once tooling is amortized.
• Software and workflow friction: Adoption of design-for-additive-manufacturing (DfAM) remains low. Only 17% of users report fully integrating DfAM into engineering workflows, while more than 70% still rely on legacy CAD tools not optimized for lattice structures, topology optimization, or part consolidation.

These challenges have exposed foundational infrastructure gaps, but they’ve also clarified where AM delivers the most value and where the next wave of disciplined innovation must focus.

PART II: REFERENCE CAPITAL RESEARCH LAB

Mapping the AM Tech Stack

To understand where AM is heading, we analyzed over 260 companies across Crunchbase, Pitchbook, and public filings. The AM stack breaks into three core stages (read on the mapping from left to right):

1. Pre-Print (design and materials)
2. Manufacturing (printers and deposition systems)
3. Post-Print (finishing, inspection, and repair)

1. Pre-Print

🖥️ Design: Where Every Part Begins

Every part starts in the digital realm. Software tools define geometry and intent, turning raw ideas into build-ready files.

CAD platforms have evolved far beyond drafting. Today, they use generative design and topology optimization to create lightweight, high-performance structures that would be nearly impossible to model manually. These tools are widely used in aerospace and biomedical applications to reduce material use while maintaining strength. The space is growing quickly, nTopology alone has raised $138 million to build tools tailored to additive manufacturing constraints.

Next come simulation tools, which help engineers identify weak points, thermal stress, and distortion before printing begins. In defense, for example, electron beam melting is simulated to ensure performance specs are met without costly trial-and-error.

As digital files become valuable assets, protecting them becomes essential. Encryption and digital rights tools now safeguard geometries as they move through cloud platforms and distributed supply chains. In a decentralized production world, traceability is not optional, it’s core infrastructure.

🧬 Materials: The Muscle Behind the Machine

If CAD is the brain, materials are the muscle. In additive manufacturing, feedstock is not passive, it is engineered for performance, printability, and purpose.

• Base materials: powders, filaments, and pastes form the foundation of every build. This segment leads AM funding, with metals alone making up 70% of total investment. Equispheres produces ultra-spherical aluminum powders that enable faster, more consistent printing. Polyspectra focuses on high-durability polymers, while ERT Bioplastics and MOP Materials are advancing compostable biopolymers and ceramics for more sustainable production.
• Performance enhancers are functional additives that boost conductivity, strength, or thermal resistance. These are essential for tuning part properties to specific industrial needs.
• Process helpers operate behind the scenes to ensure smooth, high-quality prints. Addico improves powder flow uniformity, while Akita Innovations enhances the stability of UV-curable resins. Often overlooked, these materials are critical to consistency and yield.

Once design software and materials are in place, the focus shifts to manufacturing, where precision engineering turns intent into execution.

2. Manufacturing

⚙️ AM Parts

Before any layer is printed, a coordinated system of hardware components sets the stage for accuracy and repeatability. Motion systems and deposition hardware play a critical role in determining how precisely each part is built.

Motion Components

Inleap Photonics develops advanced motion platforms for large-format metal printing, maintaining consistent accuracy across demanding build volumes. Reliant Systems specializes in galvanometer-based laser steering, essential for high-precision applications such as aerospace turbine blades and dental molds.

Deposition Components

At the core of every 3D printer is the deposition system, the mechanism that delivers material layer by layer.

• Material Extrusion (FDM/FFF) remains the most widely used method. Affordable and easy to scale, it drove early adoption among hobbyists and small businesses. MakerBot helped push machine prices from $2,000 to under $200 during the 2010s. Today, 71% of AM users operate at least one FDM machine. Stratasys leads this segment, though FDM’s limitations in strength and surface finish push high-performance users toward more advanced technologies.
• Powder Bed Fusion (PBF) dominates industrial-grade production. In this method, lasers or electron beams melt layers of powder to produce dense, high-strength parts. Variants like SLS and LPBF are trusted across aerospace, medtech, and automotive. European firms, led by EOS, account for 62% of the global installed base for metal PBF systems.
• Inkjet-based systems, including Material Jetting, are gaining traction in electronics and prototyping. Additive Circuit Tech prints conductive traces directly onto curved surfaces. HP’s Multi Jet Fusion combines inkjet precision with powder polymers for production-grade consistency.
• Light-based systems, such as Vat Photopolymerization, are advancing rapidly in sectors that demand extreme detail. In-Vision Technologies produces high-resolution UV light engines for dental, medical, and consumer applications.
• Emerging methods are pushing boundaries even further. Directed Energy Deposition using cold spray, led by VRC Metal Systems, enables high-strength metal builds without melting. Plasma jet deposition, pioneered by Space Foundry, offers ultra-clean processing for aerospace parts where purity is critical.

🖨️ Printers: The Heart of the AM Factory

If design is the brain and materials the muscle, the printer is the beating heart of additive manufacturing, the place where digital becomes physical, layer by layer. It is also where the real money flows. Printer manufacturers and service providers have pulled in over $2 billion in venture funding, more than any other part of the AM stack.

The space breaks into three models: machine makers, integrated manufacturers, and service bureaus.

• Machine makers lead with $1.1 billion raised. Metal printing dominates, with $494 million focused on aerospace and defense. Mantle builds hybrid metal systems for precision tooling. Fortify has raised $377 million for fiber-reinforced photopolymers. XJet pushes into multi-material printing with machines capable of handling both metals and ceramics.
• Integrated manufacturers build proprietary printers and run them in-house for scaled production. This full-stack, capital-intensive model combines hardware, software, and factory operations. With $803 million raised, this model is gaining momentum. VulcanForms, backed by Eclipse Ventures, is a standout — building its own high-throughput metal printers and operating digital foundries that serve aerospace, medical, and defense clients at scale. Others like X-Bow Systems and Saeki are doing the same in polymers and composites, offering turnkey production with tight control over machines, materials, and output.
• Service bureaus operate OEM machines to deliver high-quality parts on demand. Sintavia leads in certified aerospace components using metal AM. Polymertal focuses on advanced composites. Platforms like Hubs.com, with $35 million raised, connect users to vetted providers worldwide, helping democratize access through digital sourcing.

Together, these three segments shape how AM is adopted, whether by selling machines, delivering production, or expanding access. The printer is no longer just a tool. It is the execution engine behind the AM revolution.

👁️ Process Monitoring & Control

As AM moves from prototyping to production, quality and uptime become critical. This is where monitoring and control systems play a central role.

• Addiguru offers AI-powered, real-time monitoring to detect warping, delamination, or printhead errors before a build fails.
• Sensigma integrates thermal and visual sensors to track melt-pool behavior and material response.
• Procada uses this data in closed-loop systems to dynamically adjust laser power, scan speed, and other parameters — moving from passive monitoring to active correction.

3. Post-Print

🔧 From Printed Part to Final Product

Post-processing transforms rough prints into ready-to-use products:

• Thermal processing fine-tunes internal structure. TopGrain applies heat cycles to relieve stress and enhance material performance.
• Inspection and QA ensure dimensional accuracy. T&T uses CT scans, laser profilometry, and 3D scanning to verify each part.
• Surface finishing removes residual powder and supports. PostProcess Technologies automates smoothing and polishing to improve efficiency.
• Mechanical repair and enhancement extend durability. Agile Ultrasonics uses ultrasonic welding to fix flaws or reinforce parts for reuse.

This is a critical but often overlooked phase of AM, and one that increasingly overlaps with subtractive manufacturing, where temporary supports are removed or parts are shaped to final tolerance. It’s a hybrid workflow that deserves its own deep dive, as the boundary between additive and subtractive continues to blur.

🧠 Operations Software

At the foundation are software platforms that manage workflow, track quality, and coordinate print fleets. These systems are essential for scaling AM efficiently.

PART III: FROM NICHE TO NECESSARY

Additive Manufacturing is no longer a fringe innovation, it’s a strategic priority for governments, a critical tool for industry, and a platform undergoing rapid maturation. Among the 260 companies we analyzed, public funding is now the dominant force. The U.S. Department of Defense invested $800 million in AM last year alone. Europe will deploy €1 billion through 2027 under the “Made in Europe” initiative. China, through its “Made in China” strategy, has pushed Asia-Pacific to lead global AM growth in 2024.

The global AM market stands at $20–22 billion, up from around $15 billion in 2021. While current annual growth has slowed to 9–11%, reflecting a shift from hype to disciplined, use-case-driven adoption, long-term forecasts remain ambitious. Some analysts project the market could reach $45–55 billion by 2030 at current growth rates, while more optimistic scenarios — assuming accelerated adoption in sectors like aerospace, defense, energy, and dental, forecast $80–90 billion by decade’s end. The path forward will depend on whether AM can move beyond prototyping and niche parts into certified, repeatable production at scale.

Exit activity reflects the fragmented nature of the AM market, which has historically made it more conducive to M&A than IPOs. Consolidation has been the dominant path, with acquisitions outpacing public listings as investors sought liquidity in a market still lacking clear platform winners. Desktop Metal’s post-SPAC collapse underscored how early public exits often overstated commercial readiness, while XJet’s canceled IPO in 2024 highlighted continued demand-side skepticism. This dynamic has dampened venture interest over time, but clear winners are beginning to emerge, particularly those demonstrating profitability, vertical integration, and traction in mission-critical markets. Future buyers are likely to come from across the industrial tech stack, including Stratasys, 3D Systems, EOS, GE Additive, Siemens, and HP, all embedding AM into broader manufacturing ecosystems.

AM will not replace traditional manufacturing. It will complement it, solving what conventional methods can’t: part consolidation, complex geometries, and production without tooling. As global industries seek more flexible, resilient, and digitally native supply chains, AM is becoming foundational infrastructure.

The question is no longer if AM works. It’s where and how fast it can scale.

Those building the next wave are not chasing hype. They are constructing the industrial backbone of the next economy. For manufacturers, governments, and infrastructure builders, AM is becoming not just a capability, but a strategic differentiator

That future isn’t arriving. It’s already printing.

In case you missed it…

General Technologies 🚀

🌱Record-Breaking AI Seed Funding — Former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati’s new startup Thinking Machines Lab secured a jaw-dropping $2 billion seed round at a $10 billion valuation, the largest seed deal ever. It’s a bold bet on “agentic AI” talent and tech, signaling unabated investor hunger in AI. Such mega-rounds raise the bar (and valuations) for early-stage AI startups, even as questions swirl about sustainable business models. Read more here.

👥Top OpenAI Safety Researchers Join Meta — Four senior researchers from OpenAI’s now-dissolved “superalignment” team have left to join Meta’s AI group. Their departure follows OpenAI’s internal restructuring and raises fresh questions about safety priorities at leading labs. For investors, it’s a signal that top AI talent is gravitating toward firms offering greater research autonomy — reshaping the competitive map in frontier AI. Dive into the story here.

⚖️Apple Updates App Store Rules in EU — In response to an EU antitrust order, Apple will now allow developers to use alternative payment systems, charging a 3% commission instead of the full App Store fee. The move opens up app monetization options in Europe, reshaping revenue models for dev platforms and igniting rival digital marketplaces. Read more here.

🎧 What We’ve Been Listening To:

🎙️Uncapped — Sam Altman: OpenAI, AGI, and Startup Strategy
 Sam Altman reflects on OpenAI’s mission, the path to AGI, and what makes frontier AI companies investable — offering strategic insight for founders and investors navigating the AI wave. Listen here

🎙️The Logan Bartlett Show — Coatue’s Laffont Brothers: AI, Public Markets, and Crossover VC
 Philippe and Thomas Laffont break down their thesis on AI, managing capital across public and private markets, and how macro forces are shaping Coatue’s investment strategy. Listen here

Sustainability 🌍

Grid Batteries Prove Their Worth in Heat Wave — A record June heat wave in the U.S. Northeast showed grid-scale batteries could have prevented outages. As extreme weather grows, states are boosting storage incentives — making batteries and demand response key to grid resilience. Learn more here.

🤖AI’s Decarbonization Potential — New research suggests AI could reduce more CO₂ than it emits by 2035, with major gains in energy, transport, and agriculture. Optimized grids and smart systems could accelerate climate impact — if powered by clean energy and supported by policy. Read more here.

⚠️Hydrogen Tax Credit at Risk — Trump’s proposed tax bill would cut the $3/kg 45V hydrogen credit seven years early, moving the deadline from 2033 to 2026. Most large-scale projects won’t be ready in time, risking billions in lost investment and likely shifting capital toward more stable regions like the EU or China. Read more here.

🎧 What We’ve Been Listening To:

🎙️The Energy Gang — Clean Energy Finance in Uncertain Times
 Recorded at the Reuters Global Energy Transition event, this episode dives into how clean energy investors are navigating policy shifts, interest rate pressure, and geopolitical competition as countries vie for energy leadership. Listen here

🎙️Catalyst — The Story of Steam: Rethinking Industrial Heat
 Addison Stark explores how waste heat and low-temperature steam could power industrial decarbonization — offering an overlooked pathway to cut emissions in sectors still reliant on fossil-fueled boilers. Listen here

Blockchain & Crypto 💸

⚖️ Regulation

• The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, a long-awaited bill to regulate stablecoins at the federal level — a landmark win for the crypto industry after years of legal limbo.
• The SEC is reviewing multiple Solana ETF filings, a potential game-changer for altcoin legitimacy and institutional access.
• Singapore’s crypto firms face a looming deadline to register overseas digital token services or risk regulatory penalties under new MAS guidance.

🏦 Financial Institutions

• Fiserv announced it will integrate stablecoin rails and digital dollar support across its payments infrastructure.
• Republic plans to tokenize equity in private companies like SpaceX and OpenAI, aiming to broaden investor access via blockchain.
• Wall Street’s appetite for stablecoins is surging, with Circle’s IPO seen as a turning point for mainstream stablecoin adoption.
• Bullish, Gemini, and Kraken have all confidentially filed for U.S. IPOs, signaling renewed public market confidence in crypto-native firms.
• MoonPay secured a BitLicense, bolstering its compliance standing as it expands its global footprint.

🔥 Top Stories

• Pump.fun, the viral Solana-based memecoin launchpad, is reportedly raising $1 billion and acquiring multiple teams to build out its ecosystem — a sign of how memecoin infra is evolving from joke to venture-backed vertical.

🔎 Research
 
 📄EV3 — A deep dive into how decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN) is reshaping the advertising and attention economy, with implications for new monetization models.
 
 📄Castle Island Ventures — Stablecoin Payments from the Ground Up explores how stablecoins are driving new payment rails globally, especially in underbanked regions.

Podcasts & Videos

🎙️ Mike Dudas on App-Layer Crypto — A breakdown of how the next crypto cycle is defined by consumer apps and on-chain social, not just infrastructure. Listen here
 
 📹 Empire Podcast — Deep dive into the state of crypto derivatives, the comeback of perpetuals, and why options markets are heating up. Listen here

📹 Bankless — Explores how the GENIUS Act could finally pave the way for crypto’s mainstream moment in the U.S., unlocking stablecoin adoption and institutional participation. Watch here